Mathematics of extremes in random dynamics for catastrophic event risk

Extreme weather events have become a concern in Australia over the last decade due to their lasting impact on our nation’s resilience, economic stability, and wellbeing.

Catastrophic weather events are characterised by runs of extreme weather: for example, consecutive days of extremes in temperature or rainfall drive cold-spells, heatwaves, or flooding. By establishing statistical principles, such as probability distributions called extreme value laws, this project will provide mathematical tools to more accurately model magnitudes and returns of future catastrophic weather events across Australia.

Crucially, the framework we build in this project will investigate and account for nonstationarity in the underlying probability distributions, recognising that their parameters (and hence, return probabilities) may evolve over space or time due to external drivers such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation, climate change, and natural climate cycles.

These mathematical tools will have vast implications for policy decisions concerning community health, energy demand, and resilience infrastructure.

This project is part of a joint effort with researchers at the University of New South Wales.

Consequently, you will be given opportunities to collaborate across institutions and visit the UNSW campus during your candidature. The University of Queensland also provides PhD students with travel funding sufficient to support local or international travel to conferences or workshops relevant to their research. 

This project is supported by the Research project scholarship.

Learn more about the Research project scholarship.

Your application will be assessed on a competitive basis.

We take into account your:

• previous academic record
• publication record
• honours and awards
• employment history.

Proficient coding skills in MATLAB or Python and past courses in statistics, probability and measure theory would be of benefit to someone working on this project.

You will demonstrate an ability to convey mathematical concepts to interdisciplinary or general scientific audiences and a willingness to find creative solution, as well as the potential for scholastic success.

A background or knowledge of scientific computing/numerical analysis is highly desirable.

You must submit an expression of interest (EOI) by 3 June, 2026 3 June, 2026.

Before you apply

1. Check your eligibility for the Doctor of Philosophy (PhD).
2. Prepare your documentation.
3. If you have any questions about whether the project is suitable for your research interests, contact Dr Meagan Carney (m.carney@uq.edu.au).

When you apply

To apply, submit an expression of interest (EOI) for the program. You don't need to apply separately for the project or scholarship. How to submit an EOI

In your EOI, complete the ‘Scholarship/Sponsorship’ section with the following details:

1. Are you applying for an advertised project: 'Yes'
2. Project: 'Research project scholarship'
3. Scholarship Code Listed in the Advertisement: DYNAMICS-CARNEY
4. Link to Scholarship Advertisement: https://study.uq.edu.au/study-options/phd-mphil-professional-doctorate/projects/mathematics-extremes-random-dynamics-catastrophic-event-risk

Submit an EOI